Copper Prices Surge as Chinese Smelters Ship 50,000 Tons to LME Warehouses
London, October 2025 — Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have surged toward record highs, with three-month contracts trading around US$10,620 per metric ton, as Chinese smelters ramp up exports to capture lucrative overseas arbitrage opportunities. Several major producers are reportedly preparing to ship 25,000–50,000 tons of refined copper to LME-bonded warehouses and Asian storage hubs in the coming weeks — a move fueled by tight global mine supply and easier U.S. monetary policy.
Arbitrage Logic: Weak Domestic Demand vs. Hot Overseas Market
Industry sources said top Chinese smelters, including Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper, have activated export plans to take advantage of widening price spreads. The LME cash-to-three-month premium has expanded beyond US$200 per ton, reflecting tightness in overseas spot supply, while Yangshan copper premiums — a gauge of China’s import appetite — have slumped over 20% since late September, signaling domestic demand weakness.
Copper fabricators, especially wire and cable producers, have reduced purchases amid soaring prices, with some smaller firms halting new orders entirely.
“This mirrors the pattern we saw earlier this summer,” noted a futures analyst. “When LME prices were also elevated, smelters shifted to an export-driven model, raising export ratios from the usual 5% to around 15%. With the Fed’s rate cuts and accelerating green energy demand, China’s smelters are now institutionalizing this strategy.”
“Copper and Zinc Dual Drive” Signals Strategic Shifts
The export momentum is not limited to copper. Producers such as Jinchuan Group have also increased zinc ingot exports, creating a “dual drive” of copper and zinc. Analysts say this reflects both the parallel rise in LME zinc prices and China’s strategic role in the global refined metals supply chain. With China accounting for nearly 60% of the world’s refined copper output, its flexible adjustment of export flows now acts as a “stabilizer” for global metals markets.
Opportunities and Risks Ahead
Analysts warn that the export boom carries risks. Should LME copper prices correct sharply, excess shipments could result in domestic stockpiles building up. Meanwhile, the strain on wire and cable manufacturers underscores the fragility of the downstream cost transmission chain.
Still, smelters argue that exporting remains a rational choice. “When overseas demand is strong and domestic consumption is weak, exports are inevitable,” said a representative from a leading smelter. “Our focus is on using futures and hedging tools to manage price volatility.”
Outlook: A New Phase in China’s Global Metal Influence
Citi forecasts a global copper supply deficit of 300,000 tons in 2025, with LME prices potentially surpassing US$12,000 per ton. Against this backdrop, China’s “export wave” is likely to persist. As one industry expert put it:“This is more than short-term arbitrage — it reflects China’s rising influence in the global metals pricing system.”
While global investors chase copper in London, Chinese smelters are scripting their own narrative in tons of metal — redefining their position amid the crosscurrents of globalization and deglobalization.
Source：Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network