Lithium Battery Copper Foil Prices Retreat, but High-End Supply Remains Resilient

Supply Side: Technical Barriers Constrain Capacity Release, Import Substitution Accelerates

Although overall industry capacity continues to expand, high-end copper foil supply still faces a structural shortfall. Leading producers are upgrading equipment to improve yield rates, but the commissioning of new capacity is slower than expected due to extended delivery times for key imported machinery. Many small and mid-sized firms have shifted to lower-value products, driving average processing fees close to cost levels and forcing some producers to scale back output.

Meanwhile, the industrialization of composite current collector technology is accelerating, temporarily diverting demand away from traditional copper foil. On the import side, as overseas raw material supply recovers and bonded-zone inventories flow into the market, price competition in the low-end segment has intensified.

Demand Side: Strong EV Battery Demand vs. Weak Energy Storage Segment

Downstream demand is showing clear divergence. In the power battery sector, rising electric vehicle penetration and higher copper consumption in high-nickel ternary batteries are driving strong demand for premium copper foil. However, the energy storage market has weakened due to slower growth in new-type energy storage installations, leading to reduced demand for LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries and pressure on industrial-grade copper foil prices.

Overseas, market volatility has increased. Export volumes have declined amid U.S. and European import restrictions on Chinese copper foil, though Southeast Asian restocking demand has provided partial relief.

Policy and Macroeconomic Factors: Capacity Replacement Accelerates, Cost Support Strengthens

Stricter industry entry standards now require higher environmental compliance, accelerating the elimination of outdated, low-end capacity. The implementation of international carbon border taxes has raised implicit costs for exporters, highlighting the competitive edge of leading producers with clean production processes.

At the macro level, the stabilization of raw material prices has provided upward cost support for processing fees, though actual transaction levels across the value chain remain constrained by the pace of end-market recovery.

Outlook: High-End Upgrading Accelerates, Technology Becomes the Key Differentiator

In the short term, the copper foil market will likely remain in a tight supply-demand balance, with high-end product prices expected to trend upward, while low-end products face continued pressure.

Over the longer term, companies with continuous rolling processes and overseas production layouts will gain pricing power. Meanwhile, breakthroughs in composite current collectors and other advanced materials may reshape the industry landscape.

Investors are advised to focus on leading enterprises with strong technological reserves in ultra-thin and high-frequency copper foil, while remaining cautious about low-end capacity restarts and potential inventory rebounds.

Source：Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network