Supply Side: Structural Contradictions Intensify
The lithium battery copper foil industry is experiencing a dual pattern of high-end capacity shortages and low-end overcapacity. Production of high-end ultra-thin copper foil demands advanced technology, equipment precision, and stable production processes, constraining effective capacity release. Although industry plans indicate significant new capacity, factors such as extended delivery cycles for imported equipment, slow domestic equipment substitution, and stricter environmental policies collectively limit actual supply growth. Additionally, heightened environmental requirements force some small and medium producers to restrict output due to wastewater treatment and other issues, further tightening the supply of high-end products.

Demand Side: Diversified Growth Drivers Persist
The continued penetration of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market provides stable support for high-end copper foil demand. Rigid demand for ultra-thin copper foil in power batteries remains steady. Although the energy storage market faces structural adjustments, its long-term growth potential remains considerable. Moreover, emerging sectors such as AI computing infrastructure have driven explosive demand for specialized copper foil (e.g., HVLP copper foil), injecting new momentum into the industry. Overseas orders reflect a combination of “replenishment in emerging markets” and “barriers in mature markets,” with companies holding low-carbon process certifications enjoying stronger export premiums.

Market Differentiation and Cost Support Coexist
Significant differences exist in processing fees, with the price gap between ultra-thin and conventional copper foil widening, reflecting market recognition and premium valuation for technological upgrades and high-end products. Upstream electrolytic copper prices remain high, supporting copper foil processing costs. Leading manufacturers benefit from technological advantages and binding agreements with premium clients, resulting in order cycles significantly longer than the industry average, while mid-to-low-end products face some inventory pressure.

Policy and Macro Environment Guide Industry Upgrade
Domestic environmental policies continue to tighten, promoting green and high-quality industry development. International regulations, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), increase implicit compliance costs for exporters but create premium opportunities for companies with clean production and low-carbon advantages. Global green transition trends and supportive policies for the new energy sector provide a long-term, stable macro foundation for lithium battery copper foil demand.

Outlook: Technology Drives Differentiation, High-End Leads Growth
Overall, the structural market trends in lithium battery copper foil are expected to persist. High-end products, particularly differentiated copper foil serving solid-state batteries and AI servers, are likely to remain in tight supply with strong price support in the short term. Mid-to-low-end markets may face intensified competition. Leading companies with mass production capabilities for ultra-thin, functionalized copper foil, core technology barriers, and self-sufficient raw materials are expected to further enhance market competitiveness, potentially accelerating industry concentration. Additionally, commercialization of new technologies such as composite current collectors, along with the development and industrialization of next-generation batteries, will profoundly influence the future demand landscape of traditional copper foil.

Source：  Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network