International copper prices reached a historic milestone early Monday, as three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged more than 5% intraday to USD 12,785.33 per tonne, setting a new all-time high. On a year-to-date basis, copper prices have risen over 40%, putting them on track for their strongest annual performance since 2010.
The sharp rally in copper prices quickly spilled over into equity markets, lifting global industrial metals stocks. In early trading on December 29, Hong Kong-listed non-ferrous metal stocks opened sharply higher. Jiangxi Copper surged nearly 10% at one point, while Chinalco International rose over 5%. Aluminum Corporation of China, China Molybdenum and others gained more than 4%, with Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium and China Hongqiao also posting gains above 3%. Market expectations for a sustained upswing in the industrial metals cycle have clearly strengthened.
This round of copper price appreciation is not driven by a single factor, but rather by a confluence of supply- and demand-side tailwinds, amplified by a weaker US dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which together have significantly increased price elasticity.
Supply Constraints Intensify
On the supply side, global copper mine constraints continue to tighten. Several major international producers have recently revised down their full-year output guidance, with production disruptions spreading across key mining regions. In its latest report, ING noted that frequent supply-side disruptions over the past year have significantly exacerbated global supply-demand imbalances.
The report highlighted operational issues, accidents and output restrictions at major mines including Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa–Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and El Teniente in Chile. At the same time, declining ore grades, rising infrastructure challenges and growing policy risks in major producing regions are systematically reducing supply flexibility.
AI and Energy Transition Reshape Long-Term Demand
On the demand side, accelerating global energy transition efforts and the explosive growth of artificial intelligence computing are fundamentally reshaping copper’s long-term demand curve. Copper intensity continues to rise across renewable energy, power grid upgrades and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, AI-driven data center construction has emerged as a powerful new engine of copper demand.
Large-scale data centers consume several times more electricity than traditional facilities, with their power transmission systems, cooling infrastructure and supporting equipment all heavily reliant on copper, significantly increasing copper usage per unit of capacity.
Multiple research institutions have pointed out that AI cooling systems require substantial volumes of specialized copper components, and the copper tonnage needed for next-generation computing centers is unprecedented. Current global supply capacity is increasingly unable to keep pace with the growth in demand.
According to research from BHP, copper demand for AI-related data center power infrastructure could increase to nearly six times current levels by 2050, with annual consumption potentially reaching around 3 million tonnes.
Resource-Endowed Producers Poised to Benefit
Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs believes that the medium- to long-term uptrend in copper prices is becoming increasingly clear, driven by rigid supply conditions and structurally rising demand. The bank expects copper prices to remain elevated over the next five years.
In this environment, companies with substantial in-house copper resources are expected to significantly outperform, while smelters heavily reliant on purchased raw materials may face growing margin pressure.
Key Resource-Holding Chinese Copper Producers
Several listed Chinese companies stand out for their strong resource positions:
· Zijin Mining: Key assets include Kamoa–Kakula, Julong Copper in Tibet and Zijinshan. Total copper resources of approximately 110 million tonnes, with mined copper output reaching 1.07 million tonnes in 2024.
· China Molybdenum: Operates major copper-cobalt projects including TFM and Kisanfu, with attributable copper resources of 34.31 million tonnes.
· Jiangxi Copper: Owns large domestic mines such as Dexing, Yongping and Chengmenshan, with copper resources of 8.99 million tonnes and cathode copper capacity of 1.4 million tonnes per year.
· Western Mining: Holds Yulong and Huogeqi copper mines in Tibet, with Yulong alone containing 6.24 million tonnes of copper.
· Tongling Nonferrous Metals: Owns Dongguashan and Anqing copper mines, with additional overseas exposure through the Peru Baihe Copper project, and maintains globally leading copper foil capacity.
· Yunnan Copper: The copper integration platform of Chinalco Group, with mines including Pulang and Dahongshan, producing 98,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2024.
· Northern Copper (Beifang Copper): Controls the Yukuang mine, the largest in North China, with 1.3 million tonnes of contained copper.
· Baiyin Nonferrous: Focuses on polymetallic copper-lead-zinc deposits, benefiting from strong by-product recovery.
· MMG: Holds approximately 70% interest in Las Bambas and other overseas copper assets, making it a major global copper producer.
Other companies such as Zangge Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan also possess copper resources, though on a relatively smaller scale.
Conclusion
Overall, as the long-term copper price center continues to rise, control over upstream resources is becoming the key competitive dividing line within the copper value chain. Companies with high-quality copper reserves and sustained expansion capabilities are well positioned to secure structural advantages in the next copper supercycle.
Source：Cailian Press & 36kr