1. CMOC Bets on Copper Growth, Holds Cobalt Output Steady
On January 19, China-based mining major China Molybdenum Co. (CMOC) said it plans to achieve double-digit copper output growth in 2026, while maintaining its cobalt production guidance, following profit gains driven by last year’s price surge.
According to exchange filings, CMOC set its 2026 copper output target at between 760,000 and 820,000 tons, representing a potential year-on-year increase of up to 11%.
2. Jiangxi Copper Signs Framework Cooperation Deal with China Ordnance Materials
Jiangxi Copper said on January 19 that it has signed a framework cooperation agreement with China Ordnance Materials Group Co., Ltd., covering the purchase and sale of products including cathode copper, blister copper and electrolytic nickel.
China Ordnance Materials holds a 29.52% stake in Jiangxi Copper International Trade Co., making the transaction a related-party deal. The agreement will be effective from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028.
3. BHP Lifts Full-Year Copper Output Forecast
BHP Group reported second-quarter copper production of 490,500 tons and raised its full-year output forecast to between 1.9 million and 2.0 million tons, from a previous estimate of 1.8 million to 2.0 million tons.
The company also said second-quarter iron ore output from Western Australia reached 76.33 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year, while maintaining its full-year guidance of 280–300 million tons.
4. Peru’s November Copper Output Falls 11.2% Year on Year
Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines said on January 19 that the country produced 216,152 tons of copper in November 2025, down 11.2% from a year earlier.
Copper output for January–November rose 1.6% year on year to 2.5 million tons. Peru, the world’s third-largest copper producer, is expected to produce about 2.8 million tons of copper in 2025, up from 2.74 million tons in 2024. Output has remained broadly stable since 2020.
5. Chile Delays Copper Production Peak, Cuts Medium-Term Outlook
Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco said on January 19 that it has postponed expectations for annual copper production to exceed 6 million tons by several years, while sharply revising down its medium-term output forecasts.
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, continues to face challenges from declining ore grades and adjustments to mine plans.
6. China’s Refined Copper Imports Down 27% YoY in December
According to data released on January 20 by China Customs’ online statistics platform, China imported 298,027.32 tons of refined copper in December 2025, down 2.19% month on month and 27.00% year on year.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remained China’s largest source of refined copper imports. Imports from the DRC totaled 118,488.30 tons during the month, down 17.48% month on month and 29.36% year on year.
Russia ranked as the second-largest supplier, with imports reaching 27,701.59 tons, up 136.10% month on month and 15.01% year on year.
7. Kabei Achieves Mass Production of 224G High-Speed Copper Cables
On January 20, Kabei announced significant progress in the research, development, and industrialization of high-speed copper cable technologies.
The company has achieved mass production capability for 224G physical foamed copper cable products, forming a comprehensive product portfolio. Dedicated production lines for 224G foaming equipment have already been commissioned.
Kabei’s 112G and 224G high-speed copper cable products have secured orders from both domestic and overseas customers and have entered the stage of large-scale production. The products have also passed certification by key North American customers.
According to the company, product performance and quality meet the high-speed interconnection requirements of global technology leaders such as NVIDIA and Amazon, particularly for AI computing clusters and data center applications.
8. SHFE Adjusts Margin and Price Limits for Copper and Aluminum Futures
The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced on January 20 that, following internal review, it will adjust trading margin requirements and daily price fluctuation limits for certain copper and aluminum futures contracts, effective after market close on January 22, 2026 (Thursday).
For copper futures, the daily price limit for listed contracts will be adjusted to 8%. The margin requirement will be set at 9% for hedging positions and 10% for non-hedging positions.
For aluminum futures, the daily price limit will also be adjusted to 8%, with margin requirements of 9% for hedging positions and 10% for non-hedging positions.
9. LME Cash Copper Premium Hits 28-Year High Amid Physical Squeeze
On January 20, turbulence intensified in the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market, as cash prices surged above futures, signaling large-scale inventory withdrawals and acute tightness in deliverable supply.
The market stress is driven by a confrontation between three major physical holders controlling substantial long positions and a severe shortage of available stocks for delivery. Short sellers are facing mounting delivery pressure or are being forced to roll positions forward at elevated costs.
The tomorrow/next (Tom/next) spread for copper contracts expiring on Wednesday widened to $64 per ton, marking one of the largest single-day increases on record since data began in 1998. Just two days earlier, the spread had been trading at a narrow discount, underscoring the rapid escalation of market tension.
According to LME data, as of last Thursday, three independent entities collectively held long positions accounting for at least 30% of open interest in the January contract. If held to expiry, these positions would be entitled to more than 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total volume of copper readily available for delivery within the LME warehouse network.
10. LME Copper Key Spreads Surge to Highest Since 2021 Squeeze
According to foreign media reports on January 20, key spreads in the LME copper market surged sharply, with spot copper prices trading at a steep premium to forward futures.
The Tom/next spread reached its highest level since the historic supply squeeze of 2021, at one point widening to a backwardation of $100 per ton. Such a structure typically signals acute near-term supply tightness and surging spot demand.
The spike has triggered renewed volatility across the LME copper market, following copper prices earlier this month hitting an all-time high above $13,400 per ton.
11. Rio Tinto–Glencore Talks See Key Shift as Chinese Shareholder Signals Support
Foreign media reported on January 20 that a potential “deal of the century” in the global mining sector has reached a critical juncture. According to sources familiar with the matter, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco)—one of Rio Tinto’s major shareholders—is inclined to support Rio Tinto’s potential acquisition of rival Glencore.
The key rationale behind Chinalco’s position is that a successful merger would significantly increase its indirect strategic exposure to copper, one of the world’s most sought-after metals. Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed earlier this month that they are engaged in merger discussions, although the transaction structure has yet to be disclosed.
Under rules set by the UK Takeover Panel, Rio Tinto is required to clarify its intentions by February 5.
12. Global Scramble for Critical Minerals Intensifies as DRC Courts U.S. Investors
Amid intensifying global competition for critical minerals, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is actively opening its strategic resource sector to U.S. capital, foreign media reported on January 20.
The DRC has submitted a shortlist of state-owned mining assets to the U.S. government for evaluation by American investors. The assets include projects in manganese, copper-cobalt, gold, and lithium.
This move is widely seen as the clearest step yet toward translating U.S.–DRC peace and investment arrangements into tangible influence over critical mineral supply chains, at a time when resource security has become a key geopolitical priority.
13. Teck Resources’ 2025 Copper Output Meets Company Guidance
On January 21, Canadian mining major Teck Resources Ltd. released preliminary production and sales data for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, reporting copper output of 453,500 tons, in line with company expectations.
The company also reaffirmed its production and unit cost guidance for the 2026–2028 period, signaling confidence in its operational outlook and medium-term growth trajectory.
14. DRC Copper Output Reaches 327,136 Tons in October 2025
Data released by the Central Bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on January 21 showed that the country’s copper production totaled 327,136 tons in October 2025.
Cumulative copper output from January to October reached 2,860,657 tonnes, underscoring the DRC’s continued role as one of the world’s fastest-growing copper producers.
15. Vale Base Metals CEO Targets 1 Million Tons of Annual Copper Output
The head of Vale SA’s Base Metals division said the company ultimately aims to achieve annual copper production of 1 million tons through the development of its existing asset base, surpassing its previously stated long-term targets.
While Vale’s subsidiary had earlier set a goal of nearly doubling copper output to around 700,000 tons by 2035, the CEO said he is “increasingly confident that we have an organic pipeline that can go well beyond that level.”
According to Vale executive Shaun Usmar, the company’s ambition is to “become a one-million-ton-per-year copper producer,” as major miners such as Anglo American Plc and Rio Tinto Group race to boost output through acquisitions.
16. Rio Tinto’s 2025 Copper Output Rises 11% Year on Year
On January 21, Rio Tinto released its fourth-quarter production report, showing that the group’s attributable copper output reached 883,000 tons in 2025, up 11% year on year.
Meanwhile, shipments from its Pilbara iron ore operations totaled 326.2 million tons, down 1% compared with the previous year.
17. WBMS: Global Refined Copper Market in Surplus in November 2025
The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) said on January 21 that the global refined copper market recorded a surplus of 100,100 tons in November 2025.
According to the data, global refined copper production totaled 2.2324 million tons, while consumption reached 2.1323 million tons during the month.
For the January–November period, refined copper production amounted to 24.9402 million tons, compared with consumption of 24.4983 million tons, resulting in a cumulative surplus of 441,900 tons.
Global copper mine production stood at 1.6459 million tons in November, bringing output for the first 11 months of the year to 17.2276 million tons.
18. Chile’s Mantoverde Copper-Gold Mine Largely Halted by Strike
Production at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile has been largely halted after a strike lasting nearly three weeks forced the closure of the mine’s seawater desalination plant, the company and the site’s largest union said on Thursday, January 22.
The disruption has further tightened an already strained global copper market. The union said production had stopped entirely, while the company later said that oxide production was continuing, though it could also be suspended soon.
Union representatives said striking workers had blocked access to the desalination facility that supplies water to the mine.
19. Freeport-McMoRan Beats Profit Estimates as Higher Copper Prices Offset Output Losses
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that exceeded Wall Street expectations, as rising copper and gold prices offset production declines caused by an accident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, foreign media reported on January 22.
Copper prices climbed during the fourth quarter and hit a record high in late December, driven by supply disruptions at major copper mines, strong U.S. economic growth and a rebound in Chinese demand.
As the largest copper producer in the United States, with greater expansion potential than many of its peers, Freeport-McMoRan is also expected to benefit significantly from the 50% tariff on copper imports imposed by the Trump administration last year.
20. Société Générale Sees LME Copper Stalling Near $13,400
Analysts at Société Générale said on January 22 that LME copper prices have stalled near the $13,400 level, a strong resistance zone, with weakening momentum suggesting a period of short-term consolidation.
In a research note, the bank said copper prices encountered significant resistance near $13,400 per tonne earlier this month on the London Metal Exchange, causing the recent rally to lose steam.
The daily MACD indicator, which had previously reached multi-year highs, has now fallen below its signal line, pointing to fading upside momentum and the risk of a near-term pullback.
21. Lundin Mining Raises Copper Output Outlook After Strong 2025 Results
Canada-based Lundin Mining Corp. reported copper production for 2025 that exceeded expectations and said it expects higher output in 2026, driven primarily by strong performance from its Chile operations, led by the Caserones mine.
The company said fourth-quarter copper production topped 87,000 tons, while gold output exceeded 34,000 ounces, capping a year in which copper production surpassed guidance and met the company’s revised full-year targets.
22. Chilean Miners Warn of Dual Regulation Risk Under New Government Structure
Chilean mining companies have voiced concerns over potential regulatory risks after President-elect José Antonio Kast appointed a single minister to oversee both mining and economic affairs, foreign media reported on January 22.
Industry representatives warned that mining—one of the country’s most economically critical sectors—requires dedicated oversight, cautioning that a combined regulatory structure could complicate governance and policy execution.
23. Japanese Copper Smelters Still Negotiating 2026 TC/RCs With Miners
Japanese copper smelters are still in negotiations with global mining companies over treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for 2026, and are seeking terms different from those set in China, the president of the Japan Mining Industry Association (JMIA) said on Thursday, January 23.
TC/RCs represent the fees paid by miners to smelters to process copper concentrate into refined metal. Smelter margins have come under pressure as global smelting capacity—led by rapid expansion in China—continues to outpace growth in mine supply, putting downward pressure on TC/RCs.
24. Freeport Says Grasberg Mine Restart Progressing as Planned
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. said on Thursday, January 23, that the restart of its Grasberg copper-gold mine in Indonesia is progressing according to plan.
The company said recovery efforts have advanced steadily since the mine was forced to suspend operations following a fatal landslide in September last year, and it expects normal operations to resume by the end of 2027.
Source：Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network