The year 2025 marked a historic turning point for the global copper industry. Copper prices on both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) surged to record highs, while global supply suffered a major setback as multiple large-scale copper mines faced unexpected shutdowns, severely constraining output growth.
At the policy level, the United States launched a Section 232 investigation in early 2025 to assess whether copper imports pose a threat to national security. In November, copper was officially included for the first time in the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Critical Minerals List.
Standing at a historic crossroads, copper is shedding its long-held label as the “king of cyclical commodities” and emerging as a strategic metal central to energy transition, industrial security, and economic resilience.
Closing the 14th Five-Year Plan with Strong Results
The year 2025 marked the conclusion of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and the starting point for planning the 15th Five-Year Plan. Despite a complex international environment and demanding domestic reforms, China’s copper industry advanced steadily, delivering notable progress in processing technologies, equipment upgrades, green and low-carbon development, digital transformation, and comprehensive resource utilization—cementing its role as a key driver of global copper industry growth.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China achieved major breakthroughs in domestic copper resource expansion. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, by the end of 2023, proven domestic copper reserves exceeded 40 million tonnes of contained metal, up nearly 50% from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Total reserves are expected to surpass 60 million tonnes by 2025.
Recycled copper has become an increasingly important source of raw material. In 2024, China’s recycled copper utilization reached 4.45 million tonnes, up 37% from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Recycled copper accounted for 28% of total copper consumption, while recycled refined copper made up 24% of total refined output. Domestic recycled copper utilization reached 2.5 million tonnes, exceeding domestic mine copper production for eight consecutive years.
International cooperation also delivered tangible results. Between 2020 and 2024, overseas mining projects led by Chinese enterprises added approximately 1.3 million tonnes of new copper supply globally, supporting nearly 50% of global incremental copper consumption during the period.
On the production side, automation and intelligent manufacturing levels rose significantly. Green mines and green smelters made notable progress, advanced low-energy smelting technologies were widely adopted, and ESG principles increasingly shaped corporate strategies, with more enterprises establishing comprehensive sustainability management systems.
On the demand side, copper concentrate consumption in China continued to grow. Rapid expansion in new energy vehicles (NEVs), photovoltaics, wind power, and artificial intelligence fully offset declines in traditional sectors, driving overall copper demand higher.
Building a Sustainable Copper Industry Chain
Against the backdrop of global economic restructuring and accelerated industrial transformation, the copper industry faces unprecedented opportunities and challenges. In February 2025, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), together with relevant authorities, issued the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025–2027).
The plan targets a more than 10% increase in domestic copper resource volumes by 2027, the cultivation of 3–5 mining groups with annual copper output exceeding 500,000 tonnes, and the formation of 1–2 world-class mining groups producing over 1.2 million tonnes annually. It also aims to raise the capacity concentration of the top ten smelters to over 75%.
These goals form the core of a three-year action plan, with strengthening domestic raw material security identified as the top priority. China remains highly dependent on imports, with nearly 80% of copper concentrate sourced from overseas. Enhancing supply security and resilience is therefore fundamental to achieving high-quality and sustainable industry development.
At the 2025 Asia Copper Week held on November 25, Ge Honglin, Party Secretary and Chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), emphasized that the global copper industry is undergoing a critical phase of transformation and restructuring. He called for stronger international technological cooperation, deeper global green development collaboration, and enhanced coordinated responses to supply chain volatility and trade restructuring.
Price Surge and the Rise of Copper’s Financial Attributes
In 2025, copper prices not only broke historical records but also underwent a fundamental shift in pricing logic and supply-demand dynamics.
In the first quarter, tight copper concentrate supply drove treatment charges (TCs) to historic lows, pushing prices to a peak of RMB 83,000 per tonne. In early April, concerns over global economic growth triggered by U.S. “reciprocal tariffs” led to a near 20% correction in LME copper prices.
Subsequently, expectations of U.S. import tariffs fueled a sharp rally in COMEX copper. In late July, the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, causing COMEX copper prices to plunge over 20% intraday.
By September, production cuts at major mines reduced global primary refined copper output, resulting in a monthly deficit of 51,000 tonnes and triggering another strong price rally.
On December 23, 2025, LME copper futures surpassed USD 12,000 per tonne for the first time. By that date, copper prices had risen nearly 38% year-to-date, marking the strongest annual performance since 2009. Copper had decisively broken out of its traditional trading range, signaling a structural shift in market pricing.
Treatment Charges Hit Decade Lows
In 2025, spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs)—a key indicator of profit allocation between miners and smelters—fell to their lowest levels in nearly a decade.
Rapid expansion of smelting capacity in recent years outpaced growth in both supply and demand, resulting in structural imbalances. Excessive competition, initially concentrated in smelting, has spilled over into new energy and high-end materials, squeezing industry margins and weakening bargaining power.
According to Minmetals Securities, by November 2025, imported copper concentrate TCs had fallen to around –USD 42 per tonne, reflecting acute supply tightness. In mid-2025, Antofagasta and major Chinese smelters agreed on zero TC/RCs for 2026 long-term contracts—ushering in the industry’s first-ever “zero treatment charge era.”
Against this backdrop, calls are growing for capacity caps in copper smelting and for curbing excessive internal competition. Regulatory measures to standardize smelting capacity management are under active review and are expected to be introduced soon.
Outlook
China’s copper industry is at a critical stage of transformation and upgrading. Challenges remain, including intensified competition, the need for deeper decarbonization, and stronger innovation capabilities. However, with coordinated industry efforts and policy support, China’s copper sector is expected to overcome current constraints and continue contributing to the high-quality development of the nonferrous metals industry.
Source：SMM