As technological innovation accelerates, with robotics and large AI models capturing investor attention, capital markets have entered 2026 with renewed structural momentum. Against this backdrop, a key question for investors and industry participants alike is whether copper prices can remain firmly above RMB 100,000 per metric ton in the first quarter.
Capital Flows and Market Sentiment Under the Tech Boom
On February 24, China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% on heavy volume, despite intraday volatility, reinforcing the broader upward trend. The Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) outperformed peers, rising 0.43% to RMB 1.172, with turnover reaching RMB 515 million — the highest among comparable ETFs.
The fund has seen sustained capital inflows, recording RMB 360 million over the past five trading days, RMB 2.92 billion over the past 20 days, and RMB 4.86 billion over the past 60 days. Persistent inflows reflect resilient investor confidence.
CITIC Securities noted that China’s A-share market, heavily weighted toward manufacturing and financials, is structurally less exposed to AI-driven disruptions than U.S. or Hong Kong equities. With liquidity conditions supportive and investor sentiment improving, the spring rally may extend — creating a favorable macro backdrop for commodities including copper.
Stabilizing Chinese Economy Supports Copper Demand
Guotai Haitong Securities emphasized that China’s policy focus on domestic demand is expected to correct overly pessimistic expectations toward traditional consumption sectors. Breakthroughs in emerging technologies and continued global expansion of Chinese manufacturing could materially strengthen China’s 2026 growth outlook.
Copper, widely used in power infrastructure, construction, transportation, and electronics, closely tracks macroeconomic trends.
· Power sector: Rapid renewable energy deployment — including wind and solar — is driving sustained copper consumption.
· Construction: Ongoing infrastructure development continues to underpin demand.
· Transportation: Electric vehicle (EV) adoption and rail expansion require substantial copper input.
An improving macroeconomic environment therefore provides a solid demand base for copper price stability.
Expanding Applications in Tech and Traditional Industries
China Galaxy Securities highlighted that both technology and non-technology sectors may present opportunities in 2026, with market style potentially shifting toward quality-focused strategies.
Technological expansion is opening new demand channels for copper:
· Robotics: Motors, joints, and control systems rely heavily on copper for conductivity and durability.
· AI infrastructure: Data centers, servers, and networking equipment consume significant volumes of copper.
· 5G rollout: Base station deployment and maintenance continue to drive copper usage.
Beyond technology, traditional industries also contribute:
· High-end equipment manufacturing requires advanced copper materials.
· Aerospace applications rely on copper for engines, wiring, and critical components.
This broad-based expansion reinforces structural demand strength.
Investment Strategy and Risk Factors
Investors anticipating copper prices to remain above RMB 100,000 in Q1 may consider multiple approaches:
· Direct exposure via copper futures, with strict risk management.
· Equity investments in copper mining companies.
· Thematic non-ferrous metal funds.
· Dollar-cost averaging strategies to mitigate volatility.
However, risks remain significant. Global economic slowdown, escalating trade tensions, or unexpected supply disruptions in major copper-producing countries could trigger sharp price fluctuations. While supply shocks may drive short-term spikes, such rallies are often volatile and unsustainable.
Conclusion
With technology-driven capital inflows, a stabilizing Chinese economy, and expanding end-use applications, fundamental conditions appear supportive for copper prices in Q1 2026. Nevertheless, investors must remain vigilant to macro and supply-side risks while positioning for potential upside.
Source：Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network