In April 2026, although a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran temporarily eased macro-level tensions, the copper market is undergoing a deeper structural shift. China—the world’s largest copper consumer—is demonstrating an unprecedented resistance to high prices. Data shows that Chinese buyers are no longer willing to pay record spot prices like the USD 14,527.50 per tonne seen in January. This shift reflects a fundamental strengthening of China’s domestic industrial capacity.
Market Restructuring Behind the Data: Falling Imports, Rising Exports
Data from China Customs and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics paints a clear picture. In January–February 2026, China’s net imports of refined copper totaled only 283,000 tonnes, marking the weakest start since 2006. February alone recorded the lowest monthly net imports since April 2011.
At the same time, Chinese smelters took advantage of elevated global copper prices, increasing exports from 49,000 tonnes in the same period last year to 172,000 tonnes.
This dual dynamic—declining imports and surging exports—has led to a sharp increase in inventories of Chinese-brand copper in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses, rising from 87,000 tonnes at the end of 2025 to 155,000 tonnes by the end of February 2026.
Despite four consecutive months of expansion in China’s manufacturing sector, domestic copper inventories reached a record 433,000 tonnes in early March, significantly exceeding seasonal norms. This indicates that Chinese buyers are actively digesting domestic supply rather than passively accepting international price pressures.
Foundation of Pricing Power: Strategic Expansion of Smelting Capacity
China’s ability to resist high prices is underpinned by continuous expansion and upgrading of its smelting capacity. According to Macquarie, China’s refined copper production grew by 9% in 2025, equivalent to an increase of 1 million tonnes.
This growth comes despite global copper concentrate supply rising by only 1.8%, while China’s imports of copper concentrate increased by 7.8%. This highlights the willingness and capability of Chinese smelters to secure raw materials, even at higher costs, to sustain production.
Such a shift in production capacity signals a transformation in China’s role within the global copper value chain—from a price taker to a key player capable of influencing market balance through its own supply-demand adjustments. By reducing refined copper imports and increasing exports, China is converting its production strength into pricing power.
Implications and Outlook: A Structural Shift in Pricing Dynamics
This transformation has far-reaching implications for the global copper market. First, it weakens the ability of financial capital and speculative forces to unilaterally drive prices higher. When the largest consumer can regulate its internal supply, purely macro-driven price rallies become harder to sustain.
Second, it may reshape profit distribution across the global copper value chain, with value increasingly shifting toward regions like China that possess strong processing and manufacturing capabilities.
From a long-term perspective, China’s growing pricing power is not an isolated development but a natural outcome of industrial upgrading and supply chain resilience. As China continues to strengthen its recycled copper systems and advance high-end materials manufacturing, its influence over global copper pricing is likely to become even more pronounced.
For market participants, understanding and adapting to this structural shift will be crucial to anticipating future copper price trends.
Source：Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network