The global copper market is expected to enter a prolonged period of structural supply deficits from 2026 to 2030, with the supply-demand gap widening year by year. More than 70% of incremental demand will be driven by new energy sectors and power grid investments, while AI data centers are emerging as an additional growth engine exceeding market expectations. On the supply side, long mine development cycles, insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades continue to constrain output growth, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for copper prices.
Ⅰ. Main Sources of Incremental Copper Demand
1. Electric Vehicles (35% Contribution)
Electric vehicles are expected to remain the largest source of incremental copper demand. Global EV sales are projected to increase from 21 million units in 2025 to 40 million units by 2030, with penetration rates surpassing 60%.
The growing adoption of 800V high-voltage platforms is expected to increase copper usage per vehicle from approximately 83 kg to 95–120 kg. Commercial vehicle electrification will provide additional support for demand growth.
China’s EV sector alone is expected to consume approximately 700,000–800,000 tons of copper in 2026.
2. Power Grid Construction (20% Contribution)
Global annual investment in power grids is expected to exceed USD 400 billion, while China’s average annual investment during the country’s “15th Five-Year Plan” period is projected to surpass RMB 500 billion.
Ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission projects and distribution grid upgrades will remain key drivers of copper consumption. China’s power grid sector alone is expected to consume 1.3–1.6 million tons of copper annually.
3. Solar Power (15% Contribution)
Global annual solar installations are forecast to reach 400–500 GW, while China is expected to add 270–285 GW of new capacity in 2026.
The rising share of utility-scale solar projects and increasing module sizes are boosting copper intensity, with each GW of solar capacity requiring approximately 5,000–5,500 tons of copper.
China’s photovoltaic sector is projected to consume 1.3–1.4 million tons of copper in 2026. Combined with EV-related demand, total copper consumption from these two sectors alone could reach approximately 2.12 million tons.
4. Wind Power (12% Contribution)
Global wind power installations are expected to increase by 120–150 GW annually, supported by rapid expansion in offshore wind projects.
Copper intensity in offshore wind installations is typically two to three times higher than onshore projects, with each GW of offshore wind capacity requiring 12,000–15,000 tons of copper.
5. AI Data Centers (8% Contribution, Faster-Than-Expected Growth)
Generative AI is driving a sharp increase in electricity demand and data center infrastructure investment.
AI servers require approximately three times more copper than traditional servers. Global copper consumption from data centers is expected to rise from around 500,000 tons in 2025 to 740,000 tons in 2026, reaching approximately 1.3 million tons by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 40%.
6. Traditional Sectors (10% Contribution)
Although copper demand from China’s construction sector is expected to decline slightly, infrastructure investment in Europe and the United States, along with a recovery in global home appliance manufacturing and industrial production, will provide partial support.
Ⅱ. Why Copper Supply Cannot Keep Pace
1. Mine Supply (75% of Supply Growth)
Annual mine supply growth is expected to remain limited at approximately 400,000–500,000 tons.
The primary constraint is the long copper mine development cycle, typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. Insufficient global mining capital expenditure between 2014 and 2020 has created a production gap for the 2025–2030 period.
At the same time, average global copper ore grades have declined from 1.2% to around 0.8%, increasing mining costs. Geopolitical risks and community opposition in major producing countries such as Chile and Peru are adding further uncertainty.
2. Refined Copper (15% of Supply Growth)
Refined copper supply is expected to increase by only 100,000–150,000 tons annually.
Concentrate shortages continue to pressure smelter treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), squeezing profitability and limiting capacity utilization.
3. Scrap Copper Recycling (10% of Supply Growth)
Scrap copper recycling is expected to contribute only 50,000–100,000 tons of annual supply growth.
Limited scrap availability, recycling technology bottlenecks and significant regional disparities are preventing rapid expansion in secondary copper supply.
Ⅲ. Projected Copper Supply Deficits
· 2026: Deficit of 150,000–500,000 tons, with shortages beginning to emerge
· 2027: Deficit expands to 500,000–800,000 tons
· 2028: Deficit widens further to 900,000–1.3 million tons
· 2029: Deficit reaches 1.3–1.7 million tons
· 2030: Deficit peaks at 1.45–1.84 million tons
The cumulative global copper deficit between 2025 and 2030 is expected to exceed 10 million tons, broadly aligning with forecasts from major institutions including the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), UBS and Bank of America.
Ⅳ. Key Implications and Investment Outlook
1. Long-Term Bullish Copper Prices
The widening structural deficit is expected to support a long-term increase in copper prices, with benchmark prices potentially rising from around USD 9,000 per ton currently to USD 12,000–15,000 per ton by 2030.
2. Most Beneficial Segments
Copper mining companies with high-quality resource portfolios and clear production expansion plans are expected to benefit the most from simultaneous volume and price growth.
3. Niche Opportunities
Companies with technological advantages in new energy copper components — including magnet wire, copper foil and connectors — are also expected to see strong growth opportunities.
4. Major Risks
Key downside risks include:
· A global economic slowdown weakening copper demand
· Faster-than-expected mine project commissioning
· Major technological breakthroughs in scrap copper recycling efficiency
Source：XueQiu