On April 24, the International Copper Study Group released its latest supply–demand report, significantly revising its outlook for the global refined copper market. Amid slower demand growth and rising secondary copper output, the market is now expected to shift into a surplus of approximately 96,000 tons in 2026—fully reversing the previously forecast deficit of 150,000 tons. The ICSG also warned that uncertainties such as geopolitical risks could reshape supply–demand dynamics at any time.

Supply–Demand Reversal: From Deficit to Surplus, Wider Excess in 2027
According to the ICSG, the global refined copper balance has undergone a fundamental shift. In 2026, weaker demand growth and increased recycled copper supply will push the market into surplus. By 2027, the surplus is projected to expand further to 377,000 tons, reinforcing a looser market environment.
This revision breaks earlier expectations of a tight market balance, highlighting the rapid evolution of supply–demand dynamics.

Demand: Slower Global Growth, China Remains Core Driver
Demand deceleration is the key factor behind the revised outlook. The ICSG has lowered its 2026 global refined copper demand growth forecast to 1.6%, down from 2.1%, with a modest recovery to 2% expected in 2027.

Regionally, divergence is evident:

·         China: As the world’s largest copper consumer, demand is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026, remaining the primary engine of global demand.

·         Other regions: Growth is projected at just 1.3%, indicating weak momentum.

·         EU and Japan: Continued sluggish consumption due to slow economic recovery and weak industrial demand.

·         Asia (ex-China): Emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia show steady growth, acting as secondary drivers.

Supply: Recycled Copper Expansion and Geopolitical Risks
On the supply side, growth is largely driven by increased recycled copper production. Advances in recycling technology and supportive environmental policies are boosting secondary supply, easing pressure on refined copper availability and contributing to the shift toward surplus.

However, geopolitical risks remain a key uncertainty. Escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global trade flows, mining operations, and logistics. Changes in global trade policies and regulations in major copper-producing countries could also significantly impact supply–demand dynamics.

Outlook: Short-Term Surplus, Long-Term Uncertainty
Overall, the global refined copper market is set to enter a surplus phase in 2026, replacing previous deficit expectations and potentially putting downward pressure on prices in the short term.

Nevertheless, uncertainties remain. Geopolitical developments, slower-than-expected growth in recycled copper supply, or stronger-than-anticipated demand from China could quickly alter the balance.

In the longer term, structural demand drivers—including the energy transition, grid investment, and electric vehicle growth—remain intact, reinforcing copper’s strategic importance. The current surplus may prove cyclical, requiring close monitoring of supply–demand data, geopolitical developments, and policy changes.

Source：Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network